US Open 2026 Preview: Sinner Hunts Back-to-Back in New York; Sabalenka Chasing a Third Hard-Court Slam

The Favorites

Men’s draw top 3

Women’s draw top 3

Our picks

Sinner: defending on his best surface

Sinner won the 2025 US Open without dropping a set in the final four rounds. His hard-court Surface Elo of 2,187 ranks first in the ATP field entering Flushing Meadows (Tennis Abstract, as of 2026-08-25). He is 8-2 in his last 10 matches, with both losses coming on clay in the spring swing — irrelevant on this surface.

The number no one is citing: Sinner wins 58% of second-serve return points on hard courts this season, nine points above the ATP hard-court average (ATP Tour, as of 2026-08-25). On a surface where servers control the baseline, that return figure is the difference between quarterfinal exits and deep runs.

His odds at +280 imply roughly 26% probability. Our model puts him at 21%. Slight negative value on the outright — but at 1.5 units on a defending champion with no physical concerns reported, the risk profile is manageable.

Alcaraz: the number behind the hype

Alcaraz’s 2026 hard-court record sits at 24-7 (ATP Tour, as of 2026-08-25). That sounds solid until you see he has lost three of his last six against top-10 opponents on hard. His Surface Elo (2,154) trails Sinner’s by 33 points — not a chasm, but consistent with a player who converts fewer break points under pressure on this surface than on clay or grass.

At +320, the market prices him as the clear second choice. Our model agrees on the rank, not the gap.

Zverev: the third man

Zverev has reached the US Open final twice (2020, 2024) and converted neither. His 6-4 recent form includes two five-set wins that ran deep into third-week preparation time. His second-serve win percentage on hard this season is 52% (ATP Tour, as of 2026-08-25) — functional, not dominant. At +550, the model’s 11% sits close to implied odds. No value.

Dark horses

Taylor Fritz is the most interesting number in the men’s outright market. His first-serve win percentage on hard courts in 2026 is 81% (ATP Tour, as of 2026-08-25), fourth-best in the ATP field. He has beaten two top-ten opponents at the Cincinnati hard-court swing this August. His draw projection keeps him away from Sinner until a potential semifinal. At +190 to reach the quarterfinal, our model sees +5.5% edge.

Coco Gauff won this title in 2023 on the same court, in front of the same crowd. Her 2026 hard-court form reads 6-4, but four of those losses came in three-setters she led in the second. She holds a 62% tiebreak win rate on hard courts this season (WTA, as of 2026-08-25) — relevant in a draw where Sabalenka and Świątek both push third sets routinely. At +380 for a final appearance, the model prints +4.9%.

The draw quirk

The men’s bottom half carries Alcaraz, Zverev, and three former US Open finalists clustered in sections three and four. Someone in that corridor will exit before the quarterfinal. Fritz sits in the top half, where the path to a semifinal runs through opponents ranked 12th through 20th — the softest projected route among the top eight seeds.

Storylines to watch

Sabalenka’s third hard-court Slam. She already holds the 2023 and 2024 Australian Open titles plus the 2023 US Open. A win here makes her three-for-three on the hard-court Grand Slams she has won. Her 9-1 recent form is the best in either draw. At +240, the model’s 24% implies slight positive value — the 1.5-unit stake reflects it.

Sinner’s back-to-back bid. Only four men in the Open Era have won consecutive US Opens. The serve-and-return numbers say he belongs in that conversation. The draw says he probably faces Alcaraz in the semifinal, not the final.

Fritz at home. American men have not won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003. Fritz has the serve to win seven matches on this surface. He has never passed the quarterfinal here. Something has to change first.

Model: Tennis Edge Elo (overall + surface split). Odds sourced from Pinnacle and DraftKings (best available line). Picks updated 24h before the start date if any line moves more than 10%.

FAQ

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 US Open men’s title? Jannik Sinner opens at +280 as the defending champion and carries the highest hard-court Surface Elo in the field (2,187 per Tennis Abstract). Our model places his win probability at 21%.

Has Aryna Sabalenka won the US Open before? Yes — she won in 2023. A 2026 title would give her three hard-court Grand Slam victories alongside her two Australian Open titles (2023, 2024).

What are Taylor Fritz’s realistic chances at the 2026 US Open? Fritz projects as a genuine quarterfinal threat. His 81% first-serve win rate on hard courts this season ranks fourth in the ATP, and his draw keeps him away from the top two seeds until at least the semifinal. We have 1.0 unit on him to reach the quarterfinal at +190.

When does the 2026 US Open start and end? The main draw begins August 31, 2026, and the final is scheduled for September 13, 2026, at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York.

How does Tennis Edge calculate its model edge percentage? We convert our win-probability estimate to an implied American odds line, then compare it against the best available market price. A positive percentage means our model shows value over the book’s implied probability.

Related reading

• Jannik Sinner career profile: serve, return, and surface breakdown
• 2026 hard-court swing recap: Cincinnati and Montreal results
• How to bet Grand Slam outrights: a framework for long-tournament wagering